1 in a million! but it's a chance!

Hello!

'There's a chance!' exclaimed Jim Carrey's character in the brilliant and ridiculously funny movie "Dumb and Dumber" Hahaha :) I still laugh about it... come to think of it, I should watch it again sometime... anyway, this was his response to his love interest in the movie rejecting his advances with the familiar '1 in a million' that she would be interested.... Hmmm... here's to hoping, obviously the eternal optimist...

It sounds funny, and we laugh, and cry (the movie is that good!) exactly because of the ridiculous response he makes in thinking that 1/1,000,000 is actually a possibility. And yet, when I think about it, most of us believe that yes, that is a chance worth noting... Let me explain briefly what I mean, the way I understand basic (and I mean basic) statistics is that you can actually calculate the probability of tossing a coin, and getting 'heads' every time. This is a small number, but it's a 'calculatable' probability and well, most of us would say yes it is a 'possibility'. Why?
Why do we laugh at Jim Carry's character, and not at ourselves?

Do we realize that we could spend our lives tossing that coin, and never ever observe it land heads every time we toss it? And hence, as observation doesn't match theory, perhaps we should say that there are certain probabilities that are actually so improbably as to be impossible?

Hmmm.... well, what about if we had 1,000,000 people toss a coin each, what would be the chance that one of them would always get heads? The chances of consequitive heads 'intuitively' sounds now (at least to me), to be more likely.... so what is going on here...? (Aside note, I read somewhere this amazing quote, which is quite pertinent: Intuition is the product of thousands of years of not thinking, so with this in mind, let's continue.)

Perhaps there should be a statitics which takes into account not only the probability of an event occuring but also the number of tests done? Maybe there already is such a statistical framework?... talking with a bio friend of mine, seems like Baysian stats is something along these lines. As soon as I get a chance I will take a look at this... and we'll see where we go...

But right now, I'm trying hard to write up my PhD... it's hard and soul destroying, and just impossibly difficult, because especially when I am most pressed for time do I find myself branching into other sciences and discovering the most amazingly interesting books and theories. For example, recently walking around the Natural History Museum (again... I have been to that place so many times now :)) I stumbled upon the creatures from the Burgess Shale... Wow :) I love the little note that is attached to their drawings... "Relationship to living organisms unknown." So from this I stumbled upon Stephen Jay Gould and his book (I am reading...) "Wonderful Life"... and then I can't wait to finish that one and read Daniel Dennett's "Consciousness Explained"... and then .... oh, I can go on and on! and on and on!!! ....
But when I wake up in the morning... I feel great and elated for the few minutes it takes to download my life back into my brain... and then all the pressures and stresses of the new day weight heavy... so this is why I am writing in my blog!!! ....

Okay, seriously, back to it! :)